The Gustonomics Podcast

The Gustonomics Pod-in-Review

In this final episode before an indefinite hiatus, Liz and Caleb revisit some of the topics from past episodes.

The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly of Tax Credits

Tax credits are a popular tool of policymakers to influence the behavior of people and businesses. But they don’t come without tradeoffs or cumbersome rules to follow. Caleb and Liz discuss.
Shownotes
Are Today’s Tax Credits the Best Way to Get Americans to Buy E.V.s? [NYT]

The Fix Is In: Monopolies and Anti-Competition

In the midst of a surge of antitrust lawsuits from the last several years, Caleb and Liz break down monopolies, anti-competitive behavior, and what it means for small businesses.
Shownotes
Google, Visa, JetBlue: A Guide to a New Era of U.S. Antitrust Cases [NYT]
‘Google Is a Monopolist,’ Judge Rules in Landmark Antitrust Case [NYT]
After Google Antitrust Ruling, Here’s Where Other Big Tech Cases Stand [NYT]
U.S. Prepares to Challenge Google’s Online Ad Dominance [NYT]

Does Price Gouging Cause Inflation?

Who or what caused the jump in inflation from the past few years? There is no shortage of alleged culprits, and one popular theory is that it’s been driven by exploitative prices at the grocery store (aka, price gouging). Caleb and Liz discuss the role of price gouging, and how much blame (or not) it deserves.
Shownotes
Corporate Profits Contributed a Lot to Inflation in 2021 but Little in 2022—A Pattern Seen in Past Economic Recoveries [KC Fed]
Tight Labor Markets Have Been a Key Contributor to High Food Inflation [KC Fed]
Are Markups Driving the Ups and Downs of Inflation? [SF Fed]
Are greedy companies to blame for grocery inflation? We looked at the data [NPR]What is ‘price gouging’ and why is VP Harris proposing to ban it? [AP]
Harris Plans to Ban Grocery ‘Price Gouging.’ What Does the Evidence Say? [NYT]

The Comeback of Tariffs

For decades, free trade had been touted by business leaders, economists, and policy makers as the best way for countries to exchange goods and services. But that’s all changed in the last several years, as tariffs have re-entered the conversation as an effective tool to protect American businesses. Caleb and Liz discuss the trend, what it means for small businesses, and where things go from here.
Shownotes
Jobs Report Revisions, Explained [Gustonomics Podcast]
Current Employment Statistics - CES (National) [BLS]
Recession? What Recession? [Gustonomics Podcast]
Harris and Trump Embrace Tariffs, Though Their Approaches Differ [NYT]

Food and Energy Don’t Count (for Core CPI)

Two of the most critical categories of goods for consumers—food and energy—aren’t considered for one of the most critical measures of inflation, Core CPI. Why is that? Caleb asks the questions, Liz has the answers.
Shownotes
Consumer prices up 2.9 percent from July 2023 to July 2024 [BLS]
Consumer Price Index News Release [BLS]
Real Earnings Summary [BLS]
Real Earnings News Release [BLS]
Consumer Price Index [BLS]

The ‘Dad Bod’ Jobs Report, Pricey Homeowners Insurance

Caleb and Liz discuss the most recent jobs report that shows a little softness, as well as the increasing cost of homeowners insurance and how that will ripple through the economy.
Shownotes
Employment Situation Summary [BLS]Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary [BLS]US home insurers suffer worst loss this century [FT, sub required]Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters [NOAA]

Q2 GDP Overachieves

Positive economic signals continue to surprise observers. Caleb and Liz discuss the factors that pushed second quarter GDP to exceed expectations and what that means for small businesses.
Shownotes
Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2024 (Advance Estimate) [BEA]
Personal Income and Outlays, June 2024 [BEA]

401(k) Mandates, Coming to a Business Near You

It’s an unfortunate reality that many Americans have insufficient savings in their retirement accounts, if they have access to one at all. In an effort to give Americans a better chance to save, many states have turned to state-sponsored retirement plans. Many of these plans either require businesses with as few as a single employee to either offer a retirement plan, like a 401(k), or enroll that employee into the state’s plan. Caleb and Liz discuss the trend.

Gustonomics 101: What Is the Sahm Rule?

Perhaps the best indicator of a recession is known as the Sahm Rule. But it’s little known outside the economics world. So what is it and how can regular everyday businesses make use of this esoteric economic indicator? Caleb and Liz talk it out.
Shownotes
Personal Consumption Expenditures: Chain-type Price Index [FRED]The Federal Reserve's Dual Mandate [Chicago Fed]Full Employment [Econ Focus/Richmond Fed]Sahm Rule Recession Indicator [FRED]The Sahm rule: step by step [Stay-at-Home Macro]